by Larry on Sat Jul 15, 2006 7:41 pm
I consider myself to be an environmentalist. However I am saddened when I see my fellow environmentalists jump on the latest bandwagon, without a thorough analysis of the data and their implications.
There are some clearly unacceptable climate scenarios. Example: Some scientists speculate that we had a Snowball Earth scenario something like 580 million years ago. In between the climate extremes that we can imagine is a range of reasonable climate scenarios for our planet. To a certain extent, choosing the best climate scenario is a matter of personal taste.
If I were the King of Climate, I would choose a climate scenario that would slow down the rate of our global biodiversity loss. Applying that criterion, the optimal climate scenario would probably be somewhat cooler than what we have now.
People in most regions of the planet have adapted to their particular biomes. For some cultures, adapting to a small climate shift--in either direction--would be stressful, and would have undesirable economic repercussions. On a global level, when there is a small climate shift--in either direction--there will be both winners and losers. It is impossible to formulate a realistic Earthwide climate scenario that would please everyone. However if we can achieve some kind of consensus on climate change, then there are some counter-intuitive steps that we might contemplate, in order to achieve our goals.
Example: The defining characteristic of an El Niño is warmer-than-average surface temperatures in certain parts of the Equatorial Pacific. Localized dimming may help to mitigate some of its bad effects. How to accomplish this?
Build coal-fired electric power plants, WITHOUT scrubbers, at strategic locations on the Pacific Rim. These power plants would burn low-sulfur coal most of the time. However they would switch to cheaper high-sulfur coal during actual or incipient El Niños, but only when the winds would carry the sulfate aerosols over the desired locations.
When we read about dimming, it is very tempting to think of it as a problem, and nothing more. However applied dimming could also be an opportunity. Using one problem to solve another problem, and thinking of power plants as a kind of dual-use technology, will require a much higher degree of long-term global thinking than we humans can muster right now. For example, in the current Age of Peak Oil, we in the U.S. are so obsessed with gaining political control over the oil-producing regions of our planet, that we can't even come to grips with the need for serious energy conservation.
Last edited by
Larry on Sat Jul 15, 2006 9:33 pm, edited 2 times in total.